Five things to be happy about in 2025

There is plenty to be smile about if we look back, despite formidable global challenges - here are 5 things to be happy about in 2025.

One of the shitty things about being human is how our brains are programmed have an in-built negativity bias and acutely perceive threat. It's a key driver of mental health issues. Humans perceive and react to negative information more than positive information. Of course this was a useful survival trait for our ancestors who were at risk of being ripped apart by wild animals, but for us modern humans who sit at desks for a living it can get you down.

Technology and development moves faster than our biology. Our negativity bias is hard wired despite living in one of the most affluent periods of human history with long life spans (relatively speaking). Plus between Trump, climate change and the Russo-Ukrainian war its in vogue, though understandable, to be a bit doomey and believe humanity peaked sometime before 9/11, probably in the 1990s.

Nevertheless, there is plenty to smile about. Happiness can be relative so let's look at the big picture and consider five things that demonstrate humanity's amazing progress over time. Some statistics as therapy.

1) The number of people in extreme poverty has declined substantially, an end to poverty is possible.

2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty under $3 per day in 1990 compared to an estimated 810 million in 2025. An astonishing drop from 44% of the global population down to 10%.

Behind the numbers is a massive increase in consumption of education, healthcare, food, housing and other goods and services that signal people are better off. The growth of China and India in particular has helped lift millions out of poverty. In China 83% of the population lived under $3 a day in 1990 compared to 0% today.

Extreme poverty still exists in Sub-Saharan Africa in particular where low economic growth, high population growth and poor institutions continue to exacerbate poverty.

Share of world population in extreme poverty - Our World in Data

Below $3 a day or under, 2021 prices

2) Countries can now get richer while reducing carbon emissions

Climate change is an understandable source of gloom with wild weather, sea level rise and temperature increases forecast to make parts of the world uninhabitable. You can be forgiven for thinking that we need to starve ourselves and live in tents to be sustainable. I thought that to a small extent not so long ago. Fortunately that's not the case.

The key technologies and approaches for a sustainable and plentiful future (e.g. synthetic meat, and renewable energy) exist. Albeit they need to be greatly scaled. Growth has decoupled from carbon emissions. Many countries are growing their economies while reducing their emissions, and not just because of emissions offshoring. For much of human history that wasn't the case with carbon emissions linked to development.

Carbon emissions per capita across the world are actually down slightly from their peak in 2012 of 4.86 tonnes per person to 4.67 tonnes in 2023. Ireland is a stand out example growing GDP per person by 43% between 2005 and 2020, while reducing emissions by 50%. Aotearoa NZ grew GDP per person by 15% and reduced carbon emissions by 24% over the same period.

3) People live much longer, healthier life than their ancestors

For much of human history, life could be cruel and short compared to today. Death by paper cut was possible if it became infected due to poor hygiene and the absence of antibiotics. Health innovation and systems have made massive strides to address many of the factors affecting mortality and morbidity.

Average life expectancy has more than doubled over the past 120 years or so from 32 to 71. That wasn't that long ago. A lot of the increase reflects a decrease in child mortality which has declined from approximately 50% in the 19th century to around 4% today. Our quest for immortality isn't complete, but that's a whole lot more living people get to enjoy, on average.

4) Most people now receive a basic education

At the turn of the 20th century approximately 1 in 3 people received a formal education. Now that is up to 87%. Education is no longer a luxury for the elite but an avenue towards a better life for the majority.

Historically, boys were more likely than girls to receive an education, but gender gaps have largely closed. Women are even more likely to receive a tertiary education. That's the case here in Aotearoa NZ where women made up 58% of new entrants to tertiary study in 2023, up from 55% in 2013.

Reaching the ~250 million children who do not receive an education and ensuring attendance and educational standards is a key question, but the progress is something to smile about.

Share of the world population with basic education - Our World in Data

5) Human rights are much better protected

The rack was a torture device where the victim was stretched by means of pulleys until their limbs were dislocated. It continued to be used until the 17th/18th century. Modern customs banning this sort of treatment feel like a mighty improvement.

The rack is a particularly nasty example to illustrate the bigger picture. Human rights and liberties are much better protected than they were even a mere few hundred years ago. Free speech, property rights and freedom from torture among other physical, private and political rights are much more commonplace. Although some countries are far behind.

The human rights index from the Varieties of Democracy project illustrates the point with the index rising to 0.66 today compared to 0.27 in 1790. However, it has declined from its peak of 0.7 around 2010-2012. Sweden tops the index at 0.96 points with North Korea at the bottom with 0.02.

Global development is not a given

The facts and figures above are all proxies for global development, and I am sure there are alternative statistics painting a negative picture. However, these measures are all pretty compelling as evidence we live in a better world due to the importance of these measures, and magnitude of improvement. They are absolutely something to be happy about.

Progress is difficult to see within the small window of our memories, and looking back gives us a better view of improvement. Note I'm not saying that "it could be worse" is an argument to be happy about the status quo, or we should be grateful because Trump isn't a murderous despot. Progress on these major issues should not be considered a given - during the Dark Ages Europe went backwards on a number of economic, political and social issues.

All this progress is evidence that more progress is possible

Part of the reason for modern malaise is that looking forward it's hard to be optimistic due to challenges like ineffective political leadership and the enormity of climate change. However, the significant progress humanity has made is evidence that more progress is possible. That is a reason to be hopeful. Progress on issues like education can create a positive cycle of development, for example improving education for women leads to smaller families and reduction in poverty.

Issues like global poverty and health require us to hold two things to be true. 1) That enormous progress has been made and things are better than they were, but also 2) That things are bad and can be improved. It's important to recognise both to maintain a sense of urgency about addressing the issue, while also not giving in to negativity about the scale of the challenge and acknowledging history.

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